Economist & computational social scientist
My current research is at the intersection of economics, machine learning, and agent based modeling. My publications span a wide variety of areas in macroeconomics, finance, and development. Most recently I have done award winning work on the development of agent based models to understand chronic disease progression, which I will present at TEDxPfizer in April 2021. I completed my PhD at the London School of Economics and have taught at McGill, LSE, and Georgetown. My next book (Machine Learning and AI for Macroeconomics) will be published by CRC Press in 2022.
Presently, I am the head of global economics and modeling at Pfizer, where I manage a cross-functional team of economists and data scientists that provides economic analysis and modeling (including econometric, machine learning/AI, and agent-based modeling) for teams across the organization, including clinical practice areas, real world evidence, and commercial units such as pricing, finance, corporate strategy, and beyond.
Previously, I spent over a decade as an economist at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund where I worked on economies across most regions of the world. In my last position, I spent time in the World Bank’s research department (DECPG) on the Global Modeling and Analytics division and the Global Macroeconomics division, which are responsible for forecasting, modeling and exploring future scenarios for economic growth and development.
I also served as chief economist at a quant hedge fund where I integrated U.S. and global macro forecasts into reversion and momentum strategies to generate high and low frequency signals for a range of asset classes, particularly U.S. and global equities. I also managed a portfolio of long-only global equities.
I have extensive experience in speaking with the media as well as academic and industry conferences. Please feel free to reach out if you are interested.
Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change, World Bank global flagship report, authored by a World Bank DEC team, October 2015. Featured a chart listed by the New Yorker as one of the Four Charts that Defined the World in 2015. (Link)
The Caucasus and Central Asia: Transitioning to Emerging Markets, International Monetary Fund, Middle East and Central Asia Departmental Paper 14/2. I authored the bits on political economy and structural reforms and worked on monetary policy.(Link)
Remittances, Institutions and Economic Growth, World Development, 37, 1. A widely cited paper on the impact of remittances on longer-term patterns of economic growth. Authored in 2009 with N. Catrinescu, M. Leon-Ledesma and M. Piracha. Selected as an Outstanding Research Product by the World Bank in the areas of trade and integration in 2009-11.(Link)
East Asia Economic Update: Capturing New Sources of Growth, World Bank, May 2012. I was lead author of the Bank’s flagship economic monitor for East Asia and the Pacific.(Link)
Spotlight on European economic growth since 1945 in Golden Growth in Restoring the Luster of the European Economic Model, World Bank regional flagship report, April 2012. I authored a section in this widely cited study on the history of post-war economic growth, with a focus on productivity growth, in Europe as compared with the U.S. and other parts of the world.(Link)
International Financial Co-operation: Political Economics of Compliance with the 1988 Basel Accord, Routledge, February 2008. Based on my doctoral thesis, this is a global comparative analysis of the implementation of the first Basel agreement for banks’ credit risks.(Link)